Signs of Hope for Persian Gulf Conflicts: Serious Negotiations Needed

After an extended period of darkening storm clouds, there are signs of hope for tension reduction in two separate but related Persian Guld conflicts: Yemen and Syria. On 20 September 2019, the representatives of the Yemen Ansar Allah Movement (often called al-Houthi) proposed a peace initiative to hold off all their drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia in exchange for ending the Saudi-led armed conflict in Yemen. The United Nations envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffits welcomed the al-Houthi offer.

It is possible that Saudi Arabia, in a war that has bogged down and its its original United Arab Emirates allies increasingly reluctant, will call off the war as an unnecessary and expensive operation. There had been positive signs earlier of possible agreements related to negotiations held in Sweden, but the current signs are more telling. There may be some shifts in power relations within the ruling circles in Saudi Arabia, but the Saudi factions have no fears from elections.

If the al-Houthi remain in control of northern Yemen, which is their tribal base, it is likely that south Yemen will return to being a separate State. There had been an earlier 2014 proposal for a six-region federation for Yemen. In any case, decentralization of government and constitutional reform are necessary top priorities. If the creation of a separate southern State happens quickly, the Saudi leadership can say that their military action prevented the Houthis from having control of the full State. Thus the military conflict was not a total loss for Saudi Arabia.

For Yemen, the war has had devestating consequences. There is an immediate need for adequate food and medical supplies and support for the large number of internally-displaced persons. The economics of Yemen was weak in the best of times, and the war has destroyed what little economic and social infrastructure existed. In addition, there are real ecological challenges, especially the lowering of the water supply. The war has led to greater geographic, social, and ethnic divisions. Creating a national society of individuals willling to cooperate will not be easy. Regional divisions will be difficult to bridge.

The current Yemeni offer needs to be encouraged by the U.N. mediators and by those having some influence on decision-making in Saudi Arabia. Thus, at the U.N. General Assembly on 27 September, the Prime Minister of Kuwait Sheikh Jaber al-Hamad al-Sabah said that the Yemeni talks should be held under the auspices of the U.N. and that Kuwait was willing to host such talks. “Once again, Kuwait reaffirms that there is no military solution to this conflict and continues to back U.N. efforts.” At the same time, the Secretary General of the League of Arab States met with Martin Griffiths on the sidelines of the General Assembly in New York. Saudi Arabia, no doubt to “test the waters” has responded with a partial ceasefire in four Yemeni areas. Other States at the U.N. must now play their part.

The second sign of hope was the statement on 13 September 2019 of U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that a constitutional committee of 150 persons had been agreed to for Syria. The Constitutional Committee will have 50 people chosen by the Government, 50 people from the opposition within the country and 50 persons chosen by the U.N. – all Syrians.

The Foreign Ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey at the U.N. General Assembly welcomed the agreement. The three States have been promoting the creation of such a committee. The Committee will start to met in Geneva hopefully toward the end of October.

Every constitution is an answer to unstated questions about important challenges which the society faces. Every constitution distributes power, explicitly and implicitly, and every workable constitution will do so in ways which reflect the distribution of power in the society. Constitutions must be seen as desirable. They must have positive merits related to immediate and widely felt needs. It is likely that drafting a constitution with a broader base of public support would have been more possible during the first months of protests prior to the armed conflict. We will watch the work of the Constitutional Committee as closely as possible.

There are signs of positive change in both Yemen and Syria. We do not underestimate the difficulties, but for a just peace, chances must be acted upon.

Rene Wadlow, President, Association of World Citizens

Disappeared via death squades

Today, 30 August, is the International Day of the Victims of Enforced Disappearances. The Day highlights the U.N. General Assembly Declaration on the Protection of all Persons from Enforced Disappearances, resolution 47/133 of 18 December 1992. In a good number of countries, there are State-sponsored "death squads" - persons affiliated to the police or to intelligence agencies who kill "in the dark of the night" - unofficially. These death avoid a trial which might attract attention. A shot in the back of the head is faster. In many cases the bodies of those killed are destroyed. Death is supposed but not proved. Many family members keep hoping for a return. In addition, non-government armed groups and criminal gangs have the same practice. The Association of World Citizens stresses that much more needs to be done in terms of prevention, protection, and search for the disappeared persons. Your help in these vital efforts is much appreciated. 

Rene Wadlow, President, Association of World Citizens

référence: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journ%C3%A9e_internationale_des_victimes_de_disparition_forc%C3%A9e

Growing Tensions on the Road to Persian Gulf Security

Growing Tensions on the Road to Persian Gulf Security

by Rene Wadlow

2019-09-17 07:50:03

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The 14 September 2019 drone attacks on oil installations in eastern Saudi Arabia have dimmed hope for U.S. - Iranian discussions aimed to reduce tensions and potentially end the armed conflict in Yemen. Tensions have increased, and oil prices have risen. Certain hopes created by the initiatives of the French President during the G7 meeting in Biarritz, France and the forced departure of John Bolton as U.S. National Security Advisor have lessened. In fact, the aim of the attacks may have been to lessen the possibility of Iran - U.S. discussions which might have taken place during the start of the U.N. General Assembly in New York later in September.

There is a good deal of speculation as to who fired the drones and from where. The Ansar Allah Movement (often called the Houthis) has taken credit, but some specialists doubt that they have the technical knowhow to send drones from Yemen to the targets in Saudi Arabia. Some speculate that the drones were sent from southern Iraq, possibly by Iranian-backed militias such as the Popular Mobilization Forces or by units of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards stationed in Iraq. The Revolutionary Guards are nearly "a state within the state" and could take initiatives without orders from the Iranian President or the Foreign Minister. The Revolutionary Guards could have motivations to prevent fruitful U.S. - Iranian talks at the U.N. There is also speculation that the drone attacks could be linked to increased tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates concerning the future of south Yemen where the two countries support different factions.

Whatever the locations from which the drones were launched and whomever pulled the switch, the consequences are clear. At a time when governments were speaking of a possible path to reduce tensions a "No Exit" sign has been put up near the start of the road. The road leads to ever-greater tensions which may slip out of the control of governments. Thus, in addition to the French proposal at the G7, there was an earlier Russian government proposal.

On 23 July 2019, the Russian Government's "Collective Security for the Persian Gulf Region" was presented in Moscow by the Deputy Foreign Minister, Mikhail Bogdanov. The Russian proposal for Collective Security for the Persian Gulf follows closely the procedures which led to the 1975 Helsinki Final Act and the creation of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe. Bogdanov stressed multilateral ism as a mechanism for all involved in the assessment of situations, the decision-making process, and the implementation of decisions.

It is not clear how the Russian proposal for a Helsinki-type conference will progress. Russia does not play a leading role in the Middle East today as the USSR did in Europe in the 1970s. In the lead up to the Helsinki Accords of 1975, non-governmental organizations had played an active role in informal East-West discussions to see what issues were open to negotiations and on what issues progress might be made. There is a need for such non-governmental efforts today as the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East are growing ever-more tense.

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Rene Wadlow, President, Association of World Citizens

Syria: Beyond the laws of war

on: May 07, 2016

By Rene Wadlow

The protection of medical facilities and medical personnel is at the heart of the laws of war dating from the first Red Cross-Geneva Conventions of 1864. On 3 May 2016, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2286 calling for greater protection of health care institutions and personnel in light of recent attacks against hospitals and clinics in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Afghanistan. These attacks are too frequent to be considered “accidents” and may indicate a dangerous erosion of the laws of war.

The most recent systematic bombings of medical facilities have been in and around Aleppo, Syria. A country-wide ceasefire had been brokered by the United States and Russia in order to facilitate negotiations in Geneva. The ceasefire helped to decrease levels of violence. However, the Geneva negotiations carried out separately by UN facilitators with representatives of the Syrian government and members of opposition movements did not advance and have now been suspended. In addition, there was a 5 May 2016 air strike on a large camp of internally-displaced persons in Sarmada, near the frontier with Turkey. The persons in the camp were unarmed and should have been protected by the Geneva Conventions. After the first Geneva Conventions of 1864, the scope of the Conventions have been broadened, especially in light of the Second World War and the Vietnam War.

The laws of war, now most often called Humanitarian Law, are based on reciprocal restraint. “You do not harm our prisoners-of-war, and we will not harm your prisoners-of-war.” The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has a treaty obligation to see to the respect of the Geneva Conventions. The Red Cross staff is usually well aware of what is happening “on the ground.” However, they are very reserved in making this information public as publicity could harm other Red Cross functions, such as running or helping to run hospitals or providing food and medicine. Thus, it is increasingly the role onon-governmental organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch to investigate and report on violations of the laws of war.

Governments also have a role to play, and Resolution 2286 is an important resolution to uphold the rule of law. Thus we must support Resolution 2286 as a reaffirmation of the importance of world law. We must also promote good faith negotiations to end armed conflicts such as those in Yemen, Syria-Iraq, and Libya. Such negotiations are difficult; good faith is in short supply. However, as representatives of non-governmental organizations, we have certain avenues for action, and Resolution 2286 gives us a mandate.

Rene Wadlow is the President of the Association of World Citizens, an international peace organization with consultative status with ECOSOC, the United Nations organ facilitating international cooperation on and problem-solving in economic and social issues.

Protecting the Planet: An Ethical Imperative

Protecting the Planet: An Ethical Imperative

by Rene Wadlow

2019-09-26 09:13:40

The U.N. Climate Action Summit on 23 September 2019 has focused on the need for ecologically-sound development. There must be development as there are still some one billion people who live in poverty, the bottom billion as they have been called.(1) This will require inclusive development, that is, development for all to include everyone's participation with benefits for all. There is currently often an insufficient level of involvement of people in planning and implementation of government-led development programs.

The majority of the bottom billion live in rural areas. To bring them out of poverty will require agricultural development: improved seeds, better post-harvest storage, and improved marketing. At the same time, forests must be preserved, and there is a need for reforestation of degraded land. Higher sea levels will require people to move. Thus we need to focus on ecologically-sound development and living in harmony with Nature.

It is useful to recall those who were the forerunners of this vision of ecologically-sound development. One such person was Aldo Leopold (1887-1948), a professor of conservation policy and a writer who highlighted ecology as ethics in his essays and journals: A Sand County Almanac and Round River. He wrote "There is as yet no ethic dealing with man's relation to land and to animals and plants which grow upon it...The land-relation is still strictly economic, entailing privileges but not obligations...Obligations have no meaning without conscience, and the problem we face is the extension of the social conscience from people to land. No important change in ethics was ever accomplished without an internal change in our intellectual emphasis, loyalties, affections and convictions...That land is a community is the basic concept of ecology, but that land is to be loved and respected is an extension of ethics. (2)

Thus ecologically-sound development needs to be based on ethical values that are carried out in the personal life as well as in national and international policies. There is a need for a general consensus on the framework of living in harmony with Nature. While governments will formulate ecologically-sound development policies suited to their individual realities, there are guidelines provided by the United Nations and the broader world society. We have seen this with the current outcries concerning the fires in the Amazon and the Brazilian government's policy of deforestation.

During the Climate Action Summit, some government representatives met in parallel to discuss the situation in the Amazon Forest and to propose financial aid for its protection. The representatives of Brazil did not attend, claiming that it was an "internal matter". However, the combined pressure of peoples and of some governments is an indication of a new current in world politics. The ethical dimension of conservation and protection of the Planet is growing - an essential dimension.

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Notes

1) See. Paul Collier. The Bottom Billion (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008)

2) See Aldo Leopold. A Sand County Almanic (New York: Oxford University Press, 1949)

Aldo Leopold. Round River (New York: Oxford University Press, 1953)

For a biography of Leopold see Curt Meine. Aldo Leopold: His Life and Work (Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press, 1988)

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Rene Wadlow, President, Association of World Citizens

21 septembre 2019: Journée Internationale de la Paix

Journée internationale de la paix. 21 septembre. Le 21 septembre de chaque année, la Journée internationale de la paix est célébrée dans le monde entier. L'Assemblée générale a déclaré que cette journée serait consacrée au renforcement des idéaux de paix au sein de toutes les nations et dans tous les peuples.